The good news this week is that whilst there has been some rainfall during the week, the amounts were less than half those forecast. As a consequence, the rate at which the aquifer has been recharging fell quickly and peaked at 99.04 metres AOD yesterday, 23rd December. That’s even better news when you consider the British Geological Survey figures for rainfall in the Wessex region this Autumn which have been 150% of the long-term seasonal average.
The Environment Agency is showing the following state of play for the aquifer:
We are still well above the Flood Warning trigger level, yet no Warning has yet been issued. The Flood Alert is still in force and the situation was supposed to have been updated on Friday 22nd December, but of course, that hasn’t happened. Needless to say, the whole system is on something of a knife edge and very weather-dependent. Levels may drop slightly, but big changes are unlikely until the end of the winter season. Heavy rain will have the obvious consequences.
Rain is likely to start this morning and continue throughout the day and overnight; it will be warm and windy. There will be sporadic rain showers on Christmas Day and these will clear overnight and Boxing Day should be fine and dry. The respite is brief and rain, possibly heavy, will return on Wednesday. This unsettled windy weather will continue for the rest of the year. If you want snow, you are going to have to head north. As January begins, the unsettled weather gradually gives way to more stable weather, but that also means it is likely to get colder, much colder, towards the end of January. Have a wonderful Christmas!