Are you sitting comfortably? Then I’ll begin. It’s been a truly horrible week with lots of heavy rain and wind, so you might have expected the water level in the Tilshead borehole to have risen markedly. If so, you would be as wrong as you might possibly be. With the exception of a tiny blip late on Wednesday evening at the height of the deluge, the water level stabilised at 95.72 m AOD from Monday to Thursday and then has fallen steadily since. It’s possible that the rain hasn’t yet worked its way into the aquifer, so the next few days will be interesting. Of course, this morning, we have woken to a slight smattering of snow, but whilst it looks impressive, contributes relatively little water. Typically, around 45cm (18 inches) of really dry snow or 5cm (2 inches) of really sloppy sleet equate to 2.5cm (1 inch of rain). The snow today, about an inch, is very wet, so it will equate to less than 10mm of rain.
What about the weather to come? Well, once we get the snow out of the way, the weather starts to warm over the next week. However, we may have further wintry showers later today and into Monday. The early part of next week is likely to be drier, but still with the possibility of the odd shower. Heavier rain and wind return on Thursday and Friday. This sort of weather is likely to continue in early February, with further wintry outbreaks as we approach the middle of the month. Beyond that, a crystal ball is needed as there is a very high degree of uncertainty.