A happy, prosperous, and peaceful New Year to you all. In the words of the fictional Jack Jones (that’s Lance Corporal Jones of the Walmington-on-Sea Home Guard), my first words before putting up this week’s data are: “Don’t Panic!”
We had a drop of rain last week, so the aquifer has continued to fill at a rapid rate.
Over the last week, the depth of water has gone from around 2 metres below average to almost 4 metres above average. That’s quite a rise in a very short period and the rate of rise is very similar to that which we experienced in the last flood year of 2013-2014. It’s dramatic, but we are still 3 metres below the average peak winter water depth of 94 metres in the aquifer (red arrow) and we have only just reached the lowest winter level in the aquifer over the last decade. So, whilst we could, in theory, be in a flood situation in the next 7-14 days, there is still too much uncertainty in the system to get overly concerned at this stage. Only when the water level passes 95 metres AOD, the daily trajectory is upwards, and more heavy rain is in the forecast, will that uncertainty decrease. All that said, those who know their properties are prone to flooding would be wise to check their precautions, but don’t panic.
Weather-wise, today should be dry during daylight hours with rain starting again after sunset. Monday is also set to be dry with wind and rain returning on Tuesday and hanging around until the end of the week. The following 10 days will bring a winter storm with gales and heavy rain followed by a drier period towards the middle of January. Temperatures are likely to remain at or above average. The rest of January is difficult to predict as there will be a northwest-southeast split between wet and drier weather systems and we will be sat pretty much on the boundary between the two. Based on previous years, I’d have to bet on us getting more wet weather than dry.